All-Cash Sales and Prices Decline in the Third Quarter

2024-10-25T11:18:15-05:00

 All-cash purchases accounted for 7.9% of new home sales in the third quarter of 2024, marking the highest level this year but lowest level for the third quarter since 2022, according to NAHB analysis of the latest Census Quarterly Sales by Price and Financing report. Among mortgaged home sales, FHA-backed and VA-backed sales fell while conventional sales increased. This is in line with the overall trend observed in mortgage activity, as mortgage demand grew with moderating rates during this period. Despite the decline in total sales, the median purchase price of new homes (across all financing types) continued to increase in the third quarter. Since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in early 2022, the share of all-cash new home sales has increased significantly, with an average of 8.7% amid this tightening cycle. The interest rate hikes have caused the average mortgage rate to more than double, surging from 3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2021 to 7.0% by the end of second quarter of 2024. The chart below illustrates how much more sensitive the all-cash share has become to changes in the federal funds rate since 2017. However, after peaking at 10.7% in the fourth quarter of 2022, the all-cash share has recently trended lower. Although cash sales make up a relatively small portion of new home sales, they constitute a larger share of existing home sales. This share also increased significantly since the Fed began raising interest rates in early 2022. According to estimates from the National Association of Realtors, 30% of existing home transactions were all-cash sales in September 2024, up from 26% in August and 29% a year ago. The share of FHA-backed sales fell from 13.0% to 11.9% in the third quarter of 2024, reaching the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2022. This share remains below the post-Great Recession average of 17.0%. Meanwhile, the share of VA-backed sales also decreased, falling from 5.4% to 5.1%. Among declines in other types of new home financing, the share of conventional loans financed sales saw an increase in the third quarter of 2024, climbing from 73.9% to 75.1%, the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2022. Price by Type of Financing Different sources of financing also serve distinct market segments, which is revealed in part by the median new home price associated with each. In the third quarter, the national median sales price of a new home was $420,400. Split by types of financing, the median prices of new homes financed with conventional loans, FHA loans, VA loans, and cash were $466,100, $352,100, $404,000, and $401,600, respectively. The purchase price of new homes financed with conventional and cash declined over the past year, while the price of homes financed with FHA loans and VA loans increased. The largest decline occurred in cash sales prices, which fell 21.1% over the year. This is in stark contrast to year-over-year price changes in the third quarter of 2022 and 2023, when median sales price rose 16.9% and 18.2% (see below). Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

All-Cash Sales and Prices Decline in the Third Quarter2024-10-25T11:18:15-05:00

New Home Sales Improve in September

2024-10-24T11:16:51-05:00

Home buyers moved off the sidelines in September following the Federal Reserve’s recent move to cut interest rates for the first time in four years.  Sales of newly built, single-family homes in September increased 4.1% to a 738,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from a downwardly revised August number, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales in September is up 6.3% compared to a year earlier. Despite challenging affordability conditions, home builder confidence edged higher in October as they anticipate that mortgage rates will gradually, in an uneven manner, moderate in the coming months. There is a significant need for additional housing supply, as many prospective home buyers are entering the market. Following the Fed’s actions in September, mortgage rates fell to 6.18%, from 6.5% in August. However, new home sales will likely weaken in October due to a recent rise in long-term rates. A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed, or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the September reading of 738,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months. New single-family home inventory in September remained elevated at a level of 470,000, up 8.0% compared to a year earlier. This represents a 7.6 months’ supply at the current building pace. Completed for-sale new homes rose to 108,000, the highest level since 2009. The median new home sale price in September was $426,300, essentially unchanged from a year ago. The Census data reveals a gain for new home sales priced below $300,000, which made up 17% of new home sales in September, compared to 14% a year ago. Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are up 19.2% in the Midwest, 1.1% in the South and 3.4% in the West. New home sales are down 1.1% in the Northeast. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

New Home Sales Improve in September2024-10-24T11:16:51-05:00

First-Time Buyer Share for New Homes is Slipping

2024-09-23T09:21:42-05:00

On average, 40% of builders’ single-family home sales so far in 2024 have been made to first-time home buyers, according to the most recent NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index survey (HMI).  That share has doubled since 2016, when only 19% of builders’ sales went to first-time buyers. Our limited time-series on this topic in the HMI survey indicates that first-time home buyers purchased an increasing share of new homes between 2016 and 2021, when the proportion rose from 19% to 43%.  Unfortunately, the series has a two-year hiatus (2019 and 2020) when no data are available. Since 2021, however, growth in the new home first-time buyer share has stopped.  After holding steady at 43% in 2022, the share has lost ground in each of the past two years, slipping to 42% in 2023 and then to 40% in 2024. More granular analysis shows there is a direct correlation between the first-time buyer share and builder size.  In other words, the larger the builder, the more likely it is for a higher share of its sales to go to people buying a home for the first time.  To be more precise, builders with 1 to 5 single-family starts a year reported that only about 18% of their sales so far in 2024 have gone to first-time buyers.  That average increases to 21% among builders with 6 to 24 starts, to 34% among those with 25 to 99 starts, and reaches 44% among builders who start at least 100 homes a year. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

First-Time Buyer Share for New Homes is Slipping2024-09-23T09:21:42-05:00

Staying safe during the Coronavirus pandemic.

2021-05-11T08:19:31-05:00

By Hillwood Communities on July 30, 2020 • As we all continue to navigate the disruptive beast that is the Coronavirus, Hillwood Communities is working diligently to continue to partner with our Realtor community to make the sales process as

Staying safe during the Coronavirus pandemic.2021-05-11T08:19:31-05:00

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